CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-15T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39518/-1
CME Note: An asymmetric, fast, and relatively diffuse CME from Active Region 14114 (N18E15) seen to the north-northeast in SOHO C2 associated with an M8.4 flare peaking at 2025-06-15T18:07Z; the eruption is seen as significant dimming somewhat to the northwest of the active region with post-eruptive arcades and EUV wave also seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and in STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME is likely deflected northwards out of the ecliptic, but analysis from M2M suggests that the southern flank may graze Earth early on 2025-06-18. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-19T07:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-17T21:07Z (-4.33h, +3.74h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2025/06/15 18:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 21:50Z; 23Rsun; N Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 23:50Z; 23Rsun; S Direction
POS Difference: 2:00
POS Midpoint: 22:50Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: +1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.92
Travel Time: ~10.92 * 4:40 = 50:57

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-06-17T21:07Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 0.67 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/06/15 22:25Z


* Estimated STEREO A arrival ~ 2025-06-18T18:00Z
* Forecast Creation Time: 2025/06/15 23:48Z

Lead Time: 56.60 hour(s)
Difference: 33.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-06-16T22:24Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy